Download Closing the Deficit: How Much Can Later Retirement Help? by Gary Burtless, Henry Aaron PDF

By Gary Burtless, Henry Aaron

As the typical age of the inhabitants maintains to upward thrust in industrialized countries, the financial affects of getting older call for ever-closer awareness. remaining the Deficit examines one oft-discussed method of the problem —encouraging humans to paintings longer than they now do.

Workers could spend extra years paying taxes and less years drawing pension and healthiness advantages. yet how a lot distinction to spending and sales may longer operating lives make? What steps should be taken to make longer operating lives beautiful? And what may take place to older americans no longer capable of lengthen their paintings lives? major students learn those matters in Closing the Deficit, edited by means of Brookings economists Gary Burtless and Henry Aaron.

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46 03-0403-4 CH 3:2284-7 8/6/13 3:38 PM Page 47 Using DYNASIM3 to Measure the Impact on Public Budgets 47 lower-income workers would gain most. Additional Social Security taxes generated by five additional years of work by nondisabled older Americans would offset more than half of the Social Security Trust Fund deficit in 2045. 4 This chapter uses the Urban Institute’s Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM3) to estimate the impact of a continuation over the next three decades of recent trends toward delayed retirement on government budgets and household income.

1 544 233 2006 and 2010 7/21/13 Men Sample size—initial survey year Percent of population with reported job tenure Persons with tenure at least 10 years (thousands) Persons with tenure at least 20 years (thousands) Sample size—second survey year Percent of population with reported job tenure Persons with tenure at least 14 years (thousands) Persons with tenure at least 24 years (thousands) Job retention rate after 4 years Among workers with initial tenure of at least 10 years (percent) Among workers with initial tenure of at least 20 years (percent) Women CPS sample size—initial survey year Percent of population with reported job tenure Persons with tenure of at least 10 years (thousands) Persons with tenure of at least 20 years (thousands) CPS sample size—second survey year Percent of population with reported job tenure Persons with tenure of at least 14 years (thousands) Persons with tenure of at least 24 years (thousands) Job retention rate after 4 years Among workers with initial tenure of at least 10 years (percent) Among workers with initial tenure of at least 20 years (percent) 2004 and 2008 Age in initial survey year = 64 to 69 32 1987 and 1991 Age in initial survey year =58 to 63 Table 1-4.

S. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2006. pdf ). lengthy tenures in their current jobs. For a 60-year-old worker who holds a career job, what is the likelihood he or she will still hold the same job three or five years later? If the probability of job retention falls, it may mean the worker has either retired or has switched to another job (possibly a bridge job). If the probability of job retention increases, there is a clear implication that at least part of the rise in old-age employment rates is traceable to an increase in the duration of career jobs.

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