By Roland W. Scholz
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Extra resources for Cognitive Strategies in Stochastic Thinking
The results are presented by box - and - whisker plots (cf. TUKEY, 1977; BIEHLER, 1982) which are appropriate displays for discrete rating scales. These plots (cf. 4) visualize the loci of the median relative to the first and third quartile. The ratings of realism on 7 -point scales were highest for the Hit Parade with a median of 6, somewhat lower for the TV, and lowest for the Motor problem, both with a median of 5. 5 provide a sufficient statistic of subjects' response distributions. We have split the distributions according to base - rates for each story.
TVERSKY and KAHNEMAN's, 1979, hypotheses that the observed probability judgments are relatively worse for extreme base - rates when compared to moderate base-rates, could not be confirmed. But although there is some evidence for the contrary as stated in Hypothesis 3, our results do not clearly support an opposite hypothesis. Our data cannot answer the question why the extremity of base - rates affects behavior. To answer this question, other methods have to be applied (see Chapters 3 and 4), but obviously response behavior is sensitive to the variation of numerical parameters.
The ratings of realism on 7 -point scales were highest for the Hit Parade with a median of 6, somewhat lower for the TV, and lowest for the Motor problem, both with a median of 5. 5 provide a sufficient statistic of subjects' response distributions. We have split the distributions according to base - rates for each story. This is done because the response distributions are strongly determined by the base - rates, which would be concealed if both distributions were mapped as one. All distributions are bimodal with an upper peak on the diagnosticity and a lower peak on or near to the base - rate.