Download Electoral Dynamics in Britain since 1918 by William L Miller PDF

By William L Miller

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The weak link in the causal chain from social groups to party votes via attitudes was the relatively low dependence of attitudes on social groups. Even so, and taking only trade union attitude into account, the indirect link between groups and voting via attitudes was responsible for a fifth of the overall dass effect and over half the overall religious effecL However it is almost inevitable that any calculation of indirect effects via attitudes is an underestimation since there were so many issues differentially appealing to social groups; the overlap between supporters of different issues was so weak that there was a multitude of independent indirect paths.

Positive effects imply higher response percentages for active Anglicans or for the middle dass. M = respondent's head of household had non-manual occupation, W = manual. Multiple Regression Equation to Predict Votes from Groups and Attitudes %CON = 2 +20 Class+ 5 Religion - 23 Nationalisation +17 TU Power - 5 Unilateralist - 8 Immigration +14 Empire R 2 using attitudes only = 42 % + 28 Rhodesia R 2 using groups and attitudes = 46 % +7 Queen + 6 Social Spending +6 Tax Cut +9 +13 - 3 +18 + 6 -6 - 4 +10 +7 +8 +7 +9 + 7 +11 + 9 + 5 + 8 + I - 5 + 8 +10 -li - 4 - 8 +10 +20 - 9 -6 -12 +13 + 7 + 7 + 12 U nilateralists Immigration Empire Rhodesia Queen + 3 TU power +12 +21 +5 +11 +11 +1 - 3 Nationalisation Issue Votes ~ Attitudes +41 +44 +37 +40 +40 +34 +44 +33 +29 +14 +22 -24 - 4 +23 +32 + 15 +34 -44 Effects of three variables, each with a control for both the others, on Conservative vote Religion Class Attitude + I Class Effect on Attitudes with no average of within control for party Labour and within Conservative effects Groups~ Social - Estimates of Effects in Model: -11 Religious Effect on Attitudes with no average of within control for party Labour and within Conservative effects Social Groups -+ Votes ~ Attitudes Test of Model w CI> (i 3: ~ > 0 > t"" ::c 0 trl t"" trl ("l o-j "" BASIC VOTING PATTERNS AT A POST-WAR ELECTION: 1966 35 33 %, on Labour 42 %, on Liberal 10%; the religious effects were ll % on Conservative, 7 % on Labour and 4 % on Liberal.

The internationalist issue is the most subtle and is represented by answers to five questions: the percentages who would give up the bomb completely ('unilateralists'); who feIt very strongly that too many immigrants had been let in; who felt Britain had relinquished the Empire too fast; who would accept Smith's terms on Rhodesian UDI or at least negotiate with hirn; and who feIt the Queen and Royal Family were very important. Obviously each of these questions touched on other issues besides the general internationalist issue.

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