Download Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice (Public by Jinping Sun, Thomas D. Lynch PDF

By Jinping Sun, Thomas D. Lynch

Profit and expenditure forecasting performs an incredible position in public budgeting and fiscal administration, fairly during periods of economic constraint, while voters impose higher responsibility upon executive to take advantage of taxpayer funds extra successfully. regardless of its importance, profit and expenditure forecasting is frequently neglected within the price range strategy, and there's an imbalance among perform and examine during this sector. in accordance with the collaboration of finances students and practitioners, govt price range Forecasting fulfills reasons: complements the knowledge of profit and expenditure estimation either theoretically and virtually Stimulates discussion and debate between practitioners and academicians to spot strong forecast practices in addition to parts for development Divided into 4 elements, this accomplished reference first examines forecast practices on the federal, kingdom, and native levels, drawing on case stories that come with California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus structures and danger overview, contemplating political components and the prices of forecast error. The textual content concludes with a decision to transparency and suggestions from a code of ethics, and a glance at forecasting practices in rising international locations.

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It is critical that public servants have an understanding, with a reasonable degree of certainty, of both the resources and costs associated with the government activities for which they are responsible and which citizens have come to expect. Accuracy of revenue forecasts is especially important for state governments, as these are revenue-driven entities. In other words, every state government has either an implicit or explicit requirement that revenues and expenditures must balance (Government Accountability Office 2003, National Association of State Budget Officers 2002).

Changes in policy cannot keep up with changes in the forecast. * The largest revenue forecasting error was made in January 2001 for fiscal year 2002. 2 percent of GDP, or by $333 billion. It is interesting to speculate whether the tax cut debate of 2001 would have been much different had legislators known that revenues were about to crash. One would think that the tax cut might have been more modest. However, a sizeable portion of the revenue shortfall was caused by the unpredicted recession of 2001 and had the recession been properly forecast it would have strengthened the case for tax cutting.

As a whole, states’ estimates of revenues from individual and corporate income tax seem to be less conservative than their estimates for general sales tax revenues. 3 indicates that in those years for which the GPP collected estimates and actuals for each of these revenue sources, most states responding indicate gaps of less than 5 percent for general sales taxes. From fiscal years 2003 to 2004, states improved their estimates of individual income tax revenues. In 2003, 16 states indicate gaps between estimates to actuals of 10 percent or greater.

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