By Paul Rogers
Iraq stands at the fringe of civil struggle. As sectarian killings expand, and troops turn into extra deeply entrenched, is there any prospect of an go out technique? major safety professional Paul Rogers examines occasions in Iraq due to the fact may well 2005 and the way they effect on different nations together with Afghanistan, Iran and the broader center East.
Bringing jointly the broad research of the well known Oxford learn workforce, the ebook charts a tumultuous interval within the clash, together with a much broader foreign viewpoint at the terrorist assaults in London and Sharm al Sheik, and an evaluation of ways US public opinion has replaced because the struggle drags on.
Tackling occasions in chronological order, Rogers bargains a transparent and compelling account of an invasion that used to be intended to take a question of weeks -- and that now threatens to engulf a whole sector for a few years to come.
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Additional info for Into the Long War: Oxford Research Group International Security Report 2006
Do these developments mean that any major change in the administration’s policy in Iraq is likely in the short term? In terms of the options discussed in last month’s briefing (victory, redeployment within Iraq, precipitate withdrawal, or a continuation of the current military posture), it is highly unlikely that there would be any immediate and wholesale withdrawal unless there was a massive further change in the public mood embracing intense opposition to the war. It is also highly unlikely that any kind of victory will be achieved over the insurgents during the life-time of the Bush administration.
4 If the insurgency does continue for many years, then there is ample opportunity for many thousands of young paramilitaries to work with the insurgents over the next decade or so, coming to Iraq from across the world and getting training and even direct combat experience. Moreover, Iraq is an even more effective training environment than was Afghanistan in the 1990s, since the conflict is primarily one of an urban guerrilla insurgency involving many techniques of asymmetric warfare. This is actually more relevant to future jihadist actions than was Afghanistan, which involved much more in the way of conventional military actions in rural and mountainous regions, hardly similar to environments in London, Madrid, Istanbul or Casablanca.
One effect of their presence is that some of these young paramilitaries from other countries in the Middle East are spending time in Iraq with the insurgents, gaining first hand training and combat experience, and are then returning to their own countries. This is already a matter of substantial concern to the Saudi security authorities and there is also some evidence that some Afghan paramilitaries have gained combat experience in Iraq and are then taking Rogers 01 chap01 40 14/9/06 21:32:31 LONDON, SHARM A L- S H EI K H A N D A L- Q A I D A 41 that experience back to Afghanistan.