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By Terry Winograd

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2). For example, we can argue that people buy lottery tickets because they overestimate the chance of winning (subjective probability) or because their utility function for money undervalues the stake relative to the winnings. Or it can be argued that they have a utility for gambling based on its intrinsic pleasures and so on. Decision theory even allows us another decision rule (maximin) in which we can prefer an option that has the better security level (least bad outcome). Hence, we buy fire insurance to avoid the worst outcome of losing our house even though it gives us an expected loss financially.

2 still valid? The answer now is no. The conclusion would be false if all of the large books are blue. Although there is at least one blue geography book (that is not large), it is perfectly possible that all of the large books are blue. The actual state of affairs, for example, might be: 10 small blue geography books 20 small red geography books 30 large blue history books. Given this collection of books, both premises of both arguments hold: some of the blue books are geography books, and none of the large books are geography books.

The theory requires both that people have such logical rules built in to their minds and that they have a set of effective procedures for applying such rules to draw inferences (see Rips, 1994, for a full computational implementation). According to the rival mental model account, people do not use inference rules. Rather, they construct what I will call (for reasons that will become apparent later) semantic mental models. Such models represent possible situations in the world. 3: The car is either a Ford or a Mercedes.

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